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Friday, December 02, 2005

NBA Trak, 12/1/05

LAST NIGHT

Score (NBA Trak prediction)

Spurs 92, Mavericks 90 (Mavericks by 9)

Lakers 105, Jazz 101, OT (Jazz by 5)

* Lakers barely got that second game into OT, thanks to a foul call benefiting Kobe Bryant as time expired. The enigmatic Jazz continue to underachieve at home (2-6). They really should be better than 6-10 overall. You can't blame a bum record in close games - the Jazz are the only team that hasn't played a game decided by three points or less. Carlos Boozer won't be back for another three weeks or so. Utah needs to turn it around without him or else they will be well out of the running in the potent Western Conference. The Jazz are 21st in today's TEAM rankings and, for the last week have been trending downwards. They don't play again until Sunday when they play at Portland.

* The Mavericks lost a tough one to San Antonio. The Mavs are playing a Spurs style this year but weren't able to beat San Antonio at its own game. It was a close game across the board but the Mavericks were swamped in the battle of point guards. Jason Terry's EFF of 14 was well below Tony Parker's 25. All other positions were pretty close. Entering the contest, the expected EFFs for Terry and Parker, given their minutes played, were 17 and 22. Tim Duncan and Dirk Nowitzki, the top-ranked player and 10th-ranked player, respectively, cancelled each out with mutually crappy games (18/26 for Nowitzki (actual EFF vs. expected EFF) to 17/29 for Duncan.

Team rankings

TEAM

2-Dec

1

PhoenixSuns

19.6

2

DetroitPistons

17.5

3

SanAntonioSpurs

17.4

4

LAClippers

13.0

5

MiamiHeat

11.5

6

ClevelandCavaliers

11.2

7

MinnesotaT-wolves

9.2

8

DallasMavericks

8.5

9

DenverNuggets

8.3

10

IndianaPacers

4.4

11

BostonCeltics

1.4

12

GSWarriors

0.9

13

Philadelphia76ers

0.6

14

MemphisGrizzlies

0.2

15

WashingtonWizards

(0.7)

16

NJNets

(1.4)

17

CharlotteBobcats

(1.5)

18

SacramentoKings

(1.9)

19

OrlandoMagic

(2.2)

20

NOrleansHornets

(2.4)

21

UtahJazz

(4.5)

22

LALakers

(5.9)

23

ChicagoBulls

(6.9)

24

HoustonRockets

(7.4)

25

NYKnicks

(7.5)

26

MilwaukeeBucks

(8.3)

27

SeattleSupersonics

(13.3)

28

PortlandTrailBlazers

(14.9)

29

AtlantaHawks

(16.7)

30

TorontoRaptors

(24.2)


* The Suns continue to pace the league with the NBA's best offense and an improved defense that ranks 11th entering play Friday. All of this without Amare Stoudemire, not due back until February. Still, they have a fairly poor trend rating, so much so that NBA Trak thinks Phoenix is due for a fall. In fact, the system picking the Nuggets by four in Arizona in the league's best game of the night. Of course, NBA Trak doesn't know that Carmelo Anthony is not likely to play.


Player rankings

Yesterday's top ten TPR

mihm,chris

31.73

nowitzki,dirk

30.33

parker,tony

27.84

odom,lamar

26.62

duncan,tim

25.09

bryant,kobe

24.26

williams,deron

18.55

daniels,marquis

16.04

vujacic,sasha

15.88

bowen,bruce

15.76

* Mihm? He gets defensive credit for the horrific performance by Utah's Mehmet Okur (3/19 actual EFF vs. expected EFF in 35 minutes. In the same vein, Dirk gets credit for Duncan's off night. Lamar Odom has been coming on as of late.

Yesterday's bottom ten TPR

palacio,milt

-4.11

mckie,aaron

-2.98

bynum,andrew

-2.79

horry,robert

-2.31

armstrong,darrell

-0.77

miles,c.j.

0.14

green,devin

0.75

okur,mehmet

1.39

griffin,adrian

3.04

profit,laron

3.30


Season leaders, TPR


TPR

2-Dec

1

duncan,tim

13.58

2

garnett,kevin

13.53

3

camby,marcus

12.90

4

brand,elton

12.51

5

marion,shawn

10.41

6

james,lebron

9.49

7

pierce,paul

9.21

8

wade,dwyane

9.03

9

o'neal,jermaine

8.67

10

nowitzki,dirk

8.17

11

howard,dwight

7.83

12

iverson,allen

7.74

13

nash,steve

7.31

14

ming,yao

6.83

15

gasol,pau

6.75

16

gooden,drew

6.69

17

billups,chauncey

6.32

18

wallace,gerald

6.31

19

jamison,antawn

5.85

20

mourning,alonzo

5.73

21

diaw,boris

5.53

22

parker,tony

5.53

23

maggette,corey

5.44

24

jefferson,richard

5.35

25

wallace,rasheed

5.20


BOTTOM TEN


1

rose,jalen

(6.01)

2

collins,jason

(5.95)

3

daniels,antonio

(5.54)

4

peterson,morris

(4.78)

5

mason,desmond

(4.73)

6

ross,quinton

(4.64)

7

nachbar,bostjan

(4.57)

8

jones,fred

(4.49)

9

wesley,david

(4.37)

10

johnson,joe

(3.96)


(As mentioned in my NBA Trak overview, the defensive component in the daily TPR rankings are not the fully-realized ratings that I will posted periodically. This has only a nominal effect on the leaders but it does penalize defensive specialists like Jason Collins and Quinton Ross who don't have the offensive game to prop up their TPR)

* Who was that partner in the Atlanta Hawks' ownership group that was forced out because he balked at the terrible Joe Johnson contract? Whoever he was, he knew too much about basketball to be involved with the Hawks.

Viewer's guide

verNuggets

PhoenixSuns

8

27

DenverNuggets

by

4

MiamiHeat

SacramentoKings

9.

10

SacramentoKings

by

13

NYKnicks

DetroitPistons

7

8

DetroitPistons

by

5

MinnesotaT-wolves

LALakers

9:30

3

MinnesotaT-wolves

by

2

CharlotteBobcats

GSWarriors

9:30

(1)

CharlotteBobcats

by

3

Philadelphia76ers

NOrleansHornets

7

(2)

NOrleansHornets

by

1

ClevelandCavaliers

SeattleSupersonics

9:30

(2)

ClevelandCavaliers

by

11

OrlandoMagic

MemphisGrizzlies

7

(2)

OrlandoMagic

by

4

ChicagoBulls

BostonCeltics

6:30

(5)

BostonCeltics

by

8

MilwaukeeBucks

WashingtonWizards

6

(8)

WashingtonWizards

by

15

IndianaPacers

PortlandTrailBlazers

9

(10)

PortlandTrailBlazers

by

5

TorontoRaptors

AtlantaHawks

6

(43)

AtlantaHawks

by

11


The games are sorted from best to worst. That Raptors-Hawks game is a doozy. ESPN News mentioned today that this will be the worst combined winning percentage for two opponents who have played at least as combined 30 games. Yes! The worst game in NBA history. Sadly, somebody has to win. NBA Trak usually hates road teams but is picking five of them tonight. I really sort of wish it hadn't picked the Bobcats to win at Golden State but, hey, what are you going to do? You might be surprised by that predicted margin of victory for the Kings over the Heat but keep in mind that Miami has worst strength of schedule in the league right now. If they had to pick a time of the year to play without Shaq, this it it.


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