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Tuesday, December 06, 2005

NBA Trak, 12/6

Good news:

Last night's scores (w/ NBA Trak projection)
Mavericks 102, Bulls 94 (Mavericks by 3)
Clippers 99, Heat 89 (Clippers by 4)
Timberwolves 91, Jazz 77 (T-wolves by 2)
Spurs 110, Magic 85 (Spurs by 8)

* Yep, after a rough stretch and much tinkering, NBAT put up a perfect night. I think I patched up the squirrelly results I was getting from the trend factor in the system. I'm not promising perfection but I think you can start paying attention to the predictions NBAT kicks out.

Here's tonight's viewer's guide:

Visitor

Home

TIMES CST

QUAL

PREDICTION



DallasMavericks

IndianaPacers

6_p.m._(NBATV)

17

IndianaPacers

by

1

PortlandTrailBlazers

PhoenixSuns

8_p.m.

4

PhoenixSuns

by

16

ClevelandCavaliers

SacramentoKings

9_p.m.

2

SacramentoKings

by

1

NOrleansHornets

MemphisGrizzlies

7_p.m.

0

MemphisGrizzlies

by

9

BostonCeltics

HoustonRockets

7:30_p.m.

(7)

HoustonRockets

by

1

LALakers

MilwaukeeBucks

7_p.m.

(8)

MilwaukeeBucks

by

4

AtlantaHawks

DenverNuggets

8_p.m.

(10)

DenverNuggets

by

11

NYKnicks

SeattleSupersonics

9_p.m.

(17)

SeattleSupersonics

by

4

TorontoRaptors

WashingtonWizards

6_p.m.

(24)

WashingtonWizards

by

9


Again, the QUAL rating adds together the opponents' current TEAM ratings to give an overall quality factor for each game. This isn't a great slate because even the Mavericks and Pacers is somewhat marred by the Pacers' injury problems at the point-guard position. A Cavaliers game is always entertaining and a game against the Kings is a great chance for LeBron and company to sharpen their road teeth.

Current team rankings

No.

POWER

6-Dec

Last

1

PhoenixSuns

22.2

0.0

2

SanAntonioSpurs

21.0

61.9

3

DetroitPistons

17.3

(0.0)

4

LAClippers

15.7

32.5

5

DallasMavericks

11.5

35.8

6

MinnesotaT-wolves

10.3

28.1

7

MiamiHeat

8.6

(30.2)

8

DenverNuggets

6.6

0.0

9

ClevelandCavaliers

6.4

0.0

10

IndianaPacers

5.6

0.0

11

MemphisGrizzlies

3.9

0.0

12

GSWarriors

2.1

0.0

13

BostonCeltics

0.8

0.0

14

WashingtonWizards

(1.2)

0.0

15

Philadelphia76ers

(1.4)

0.0

16

CharlotteBobcats

(2.9)

0.0

17

NJNets

(3.0)

(0.0)

18

SacramentoKings

(3.9)

0.0

19

NOrleansHornets

(3.9)

(0.0)

20

LALakers

(4.3)

0.0

21

MilwaukeeBucks

(4.6)

0.0

22

UtahJazz

(4.8)

(28.5)

23

NYKnicks

(7.6)

0.0

24

HoustonRockets

(8.0)

0.0

25

ChicagoBulls

(8.6)

(37.0)

26

SeattleSupersonics

(10.3)

0.0

27

OrlandoMagic

(10.4)

(62.6)

28

PortlandTrailBlazers

(16.3)

0.0

29

AtlantaHawks

(18.1)

0.0

30

TorontoRaptors

(20.7)

0.0


The Spurs' big game at Orlando nearly enables the champs to reclaim the top spot.

A word on how to read these: Teams are ranked by POWER, which is their average EFF per game as compared to their opponents average EFF. Approximately three points of EFF equals an actual point. So if, for instance, Phoenix (+22) was playing Toronto (-21) on a neutral court, you could expect the Suns to win by about 14 points. If it were in Toronto, the spread would be 11; in Phoenix it'd be 17. The predictions NBAT kicks out work similar to this except for the much-maligned trend factor, which looks at recent performance and is blended with the POWER.

A couple of other notes:

Martin Manley's latest rankings are out. Take a peek.

Also, I have automated the counterpart statistics function of my database. So as soon as I finish entering in the early season box scores, my individual player TPR ratings will include both a team and individual component on a daily basis. Only the on-court/off-court ratings will be periodic. This will also enable me to post regular individual defensive rankings which should provide plenty of fodder for discussion.

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